Prospect of the international situation in 2019： what will happen to the world in the new year？
Zhongxin. com, January 1 ST (Bian Lei) Today, 2019 opens and the world enters a new year.
Looking back at the world in 2018, there are tensions and handshakes; There are people who have left their homes and reunited after a long separation; There is a willingness to go its own way, and there is also a win-win cooperation.
There are many disturbances, and the New Year has arrived. Can the dispute between the United States and Russia turn around, can the EU’s "separation" be neat, and can the displaced refugees settle down … … There are still many puzzles to be solved in the world situation in 2019.
A suspense drama with twists and turns
Russia and the United States "old rivals" will meet again.
From the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty turmoil to the Syrian conflict, 2018 witnessed the further deterioration of Russia-US relations; However, from the July 16 "Pute Meeting" to the mutual invitation of the heads of state of the two countries, 2018 also left a highlight moment under the cloud of Russia-US relations.
For Russia, in 2019, it will still face "two Americans", one is a "rigid America" that abides by hostility towards Russia, and the other is a "Trump’s America" that is bound by domestic politics and public opinion. Zhao Junjie, a researcher at the European Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, predicted in an interview with Zhongxin.com that the second "Pute Meeting" might be held, but there are still uncertainties.
However, creating a good external environment may not be Russia’s top priority in the new year. Experts said that Russia will maintain Russia-US relations in a "controllable opposition" and will focus on promoting economic development and improving people’s livelihood.
Brothers on the peninsula facing each other.
Can the Han Dynasty survive the robbery?
2018 is not just a tense year. From Panmunjom to Pyongyang, three "Jinwenhui" opened the window of peace on the peninsula; In Sentosa Island, Singapore, the smooth progress of the "Golden Specialist" has made history stand at a new starting point. Many experts pointed out that in 2019, the easing situation on the peninsula will continue.
"For now, ‘ Jinwenhui ’ May be more ‘ Jintehui ’ In an interview with Zhongxin.com, Ling Shengli, secretary-general of the Center for International Security Studies of the Foreign Affairs University, predicted, "Because from 2018 ‘ Jintehui ’ From the point of view, both the DPRK and the ROK are willing to ‘ Jintehui ’ Before, meet and communicate first. "
According to Ling Shengli’s analysis, the second "Golden Specialist Conference" may be held in the first half of the year, and its core topics will still point to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, the understanding of the concept of denuclearization of the peninsula by both sides, the specific operation of nuclear abandonment, and whether a reciprocal agreement can be reached, which may become the focus of attention of the US and DPRK leaders.
"Troika" bumps all the way.
The EU will usher in a truly crucial year.
After a lapse of five years, the EU will usher in parliamentary elections in May 2019, and the former "Troika" was in a quagmire last year. Jiang Shixue, an expert on international issues and distinguished professor of Shanghai University, predicts that there are still many uncertainties in Britain’s "Brexit" this year, and the French "Yellow Vest" movement may be repeated at the beginning of the year. At the same time, Karrenbauer, leader of the German ruling party, will also face many challenges.
In the opinion of public opinion, Britain is decoupled from integration, the "Franco-German axis" is beyond its power, and the ultra-right populist forces are emerging, which may bring variables to the European Parliament elections, and the EU will also face a crisis of potential leadership vacuum.
However, Jiang Shixue said: "The EU has a sound mechanism that can lead all EU member States in all aspects to promote the development of political, economic, social and cultural fields."
Attack from all sides to create momentum
Is the confrontation between Russia and Europe "taking part in accidental amusement"?
In 2019, Ukraine, located between Russia and Europe, was more eye-catching. In 2018, the storm caused by the Russian-Ukrainian Kerch Strait has not been smooth, and the rest of the waves have been "photographed" in 2019.
Who started the trouble in Kerch Strait first? At the end of last year, Russia and Ukraine fought in the Black Sea, then the friendship treaty cooled down, the war between sanctions and anti-sanctions started, Trump postponed the Pute meeting, and the EU wanted to extend the sanctions against Russia … … Will Russia-Ukraine relations ease in the new year?
Zhao Junjie, a researcher at the European Institute of China Academy of Social Sciences, said that the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine has become the strategic focus of the game between Russia and western countries, and the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine will continue in 2019.
According to expert analysis, on the contrary, Russia-Europe relations may be warming up, and Europe has its own problems. Putin may use Europe’s dependence on Russia in energy and other aspects to strengthen contacts with Europe and reach an agreement with Europe on major issues. However, some analysts said that in view of the sharp differences between the two sides on the Ukrainian issue, the "improvement" of Russian-European relations will be limited to "superficial articles."
Mixed flavors "one pot stew"
American politics faces many uncertainties.
At the beginning of 2019, American political circles are also facing many uncertainties: the hidden danger of "retreating from the group" has not been dispersed, the deadlock of the government’s "closing the door" has not been solved, the shock of US stocks is worrying, the investigation of "TongRumen" is still poking Trump’s spine, and Trump withdraws his troops from Syria but makes a surprise visit to Iraq … …
In early 2019, Trump may announce his withdrawal from Afghanistan. In this regard, Zhong-Ying Pang, Dean of the Institute of Ocean Development of China Ocean University, said: "On the whole, Trump’s foreign policy is shrinking from the existing global strategic layout." "Over the years, the pace of global expansion of the United States has been too great, and now announcing the withdrawal of troops is actually an adjustment of the global strategic layout of the US government."
On the other hand, the new House of Representatives controlled by the Democratic Party will take office on the 3rd. In 2019, can the "split" Congress belonging to the two parties make Trumpism continue to advance? Can we reshape the American political landscape? It deserves attention.
Six relatives are helpless, and thorns are everywhere.
Where is the refugee’s home?
On the US-Mexico border, immigrants looking for the "American Dream" were blocked from the country by tear gas; In Europe on the other side of the ocean, refugees are still drifting at sea; After the war in Syria, the people set foot on the road of no return to find a place to live … … In 2019, where will refugees be home?
At the end of 2018, many countries in the United States and Europe tightened their refugee immigration policies, and related contradictions deepened. The dispute over the border wall in the United States has intensified the division of the government, and Italy, Poland and other countries have been at loggerheads with the European Union because of the refugee problem.
On December 19th of the same year, the United Nations General Assembly adopted the Global Compact on Migration. Can the migration issue usher in a turning point?
"On the issue of immigration, every country will make the right choice according to its own interests, and the relevant provisions of the United Nations only play a certain guiding and binding role externally. The contract is conducive to all countries in the world to work together to solve the immigration problem, but it is impossible for the immigration problem to be solved once and for all. " Jiang Shixue said. (End)