National Climate Center： ＂Cold Winter＂ is a rumor on the Internet.

　　These days, with the arrival of cold air, people living in the north have been rummaging around for long pants. At the same time, online rumors about "cold winter" have gradually increased, and even there is a saying that "2018 is a cold winter, and from now on until 2025, the temperature will be colder every year". "This kind of rumor is outrageous and absurd. It is purely to attract public attention and create public panic." On October 16th, the National Climate Center responded.

　　Climate prediction is a highly professional and scientific research-oriented business, which requires a large number of climate observation data as the basis, high-resolution numerical prediction products as the support, dynamic and statistical diagnosis and analysis, in order to draw scientific conclusions carefully. Every year in late October, the National Climate Center organizes climate experts from national scientific research institutes and business units to conduct scientific consultation and judgment on the climate situation in winter and issue official forecasts. About 2018— The winter climate trend in 2019, the National Climate Center’s recent preliminary forecast: It is expected that the temperature in most parts of China will be high in winter, and it is unlikely that there will be a cold winter.

　　The main reasons are as follows: First, since June 2018, the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Middle East Pacific has turned warmer and has been developing and strengthening, and this warming will continue to develop and will be in 2018— An El Ni? o event was formed in the winter of 2019. When the El Ni? o event occurred, the winter monsoon intensity in East Asia was weak, and the temperature in China was generally high. Second, the winter temperature in China is affected by the synergistic effect of the circulation systems of the East Asian winter monsoon. Consistent prediction of climate models at home and abroad, 2018— In the winter of 2019, the general atmospheric circulation in Europe and Asia is mainly zonal, which is not conducive to the frequent activities of cold air and is conducive to a wide range of warmer temperatures in China. And with the approaching of the forecast time limit, the forecast results of each model are revised to a warmer trend in a wide range than before.

　　As the official department of climate monitoring, forecasting and assessment services, the National Climate Center has been closely monitoring the evolution of the climate system, including the impact of the evolution of the underlying surface such as ocean, ice and snow and the atmospheric circulation system on the climate, as well as the forecast and update of the dynamic climate model, and releasing the latest forecast products in time.

　　It is precisely because of the complexity and scientificity of climate prediction that the Meteorological Law of People’s Republic of China (PRC) clearly stipulates that the competent meteorological departments at all levels shall, in accordance with their duties, issue public meteorological forecasts and severe weather warnings to the society, and supplement or revise them in time according to the weather changes. No other organization or individual may issue public meteorological forecasts and severe weather warnings to the society. National Climate Center of China Meteorological Bureau is the only official department that issues short-term climate prediction products in China. (Reporter Fu Lili)